The Subban Watch – January 26, 2013.

With seemingly no progress in P.K. Subban’s contract talks with the Montreal Canadiens, trade and offer sheet speculation is growing.

Could Subban become a Flyer?

Could Subban become a Flyer?

TORONTO SUN: Chris Stevenson wonders if there’s an NHL team willing to sign Montreal Canadiens defenseman P.K. Subban to an offer sheet. He suggests the injury-riddled Philadelphia Flyers, who signed Nashville Predators captain Shea Weber last summer to an expensive offer sheet, as a possible candidate, but noted one  NHL agent scoffed at the notion, claiming the Canadiens would match any offer for Subban. Stevenson also cited an “NHL executive” claiming “at least three teams” had contacted the Habs to inquire about Subban’s trade status.

PHILLY.COM: cited Josh Rimer, producer for XM’s “NHL Home Ice” and SportsNet in Toronto, reporting the Flyers had contacted the Canadiens about Subban, suggesting Flyers center Sean Couturier would likely be part of the Habs asking price.

PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER hockey columnist Sam Carchidi reported last night via Twitter : “SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.”

LA PRESSE: Mathias Brunet speculated over Subban’s possible trade value, believing if the Habs shop the talented young blueliner, they should get a top-two young defenseman, a first line scorer or a promising one plus a first round pick. Brunet suggested the play of Rafael Diaz could mean the Habs wouldn’t need to get a defenseman back in return.

RDS.CA: Renaud Lavoie also reported on the Subban trade and offer sheet rumors, but cautioned against reading too much into them, suggesting as long as Subban wants to remain a Canadien and GM Marc Bergevin wants to keep him, hope still remains for the two sides to work out a new contract.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: I used Google to translate Brunet’s and Lavoie’s columns from French to English, so I apologize if anything was lost in translation.

 I don’t doubt teams have called Bergevin to ask about Subban, but I still don’t believe he wants to trade the young blueliner.  Bergevin’s position is understandable, as he wants to re-sign Subban for an affordable deal allowing for more cap space going forward for other signings or additions, especially with the salary cap next season dropping to $64.3 million.

On the other hand, the Subban camp saw the new contracts other comparable young stars (Eberle, Seguin, Doughty, Eriksson, Hall, E.Kane) received  since the summer of 2011, so obviously they want a lucrative, long-term deal, probably five-six years for around $30-$35 million.

 Negotiations between the two sides ended Friday with no resolution,and Subban will take the weekend to consider his options. If the Canadiens blueline remains healthy and the team is playing well, the leverage shifts to Bergevin, but if Markov is injured again and/or the Habs struggle, it moves  toward Subban. Ultimately, I agree with Lavoie’s take on the situation, and believe the Canadiens will re-sign him, but it will take time, ensuring the trade and offer sheet rumors continue to swirl.

54 Comments

  1. Here’s what I don’t get???? And pardon me for asking ???

    This is an issue that they had before the end of last year they had a chance to discuss this between agent and Bergevin during the lockout and now they had time prior to the season to sign Subban ….what is all this negotiations for for almost a full year …..are you kidding me that you dont know how much to sign this kid for that it takes you almost a year to decide his fate ….W…T…F seriously …isn’t it better to sign his ass and start helping your team who needs it right now …or trade this guy ASAP to get a quality player or assets to help you team right now ..instead of having neither …I mean really ????

    I mean what they heck is all this talk and Bull Shit for …..Montreal …helllooooo ,…get a guy in your line up right now …shit or get off the pot man …this isn’t rocket science here and its just stupid …..

    and I don’t want to hear that these things take time and they are all part of the process …if I was a Habs fan ..Id be fricken pissed …either sign him or get rid of him and get the help you need rebuilding this franchise and get players on the ice to play for the team ….what the heck ……he’s great trade bait you will get a handsome return …just keep the rebuild going instead of having no players on the ice that are playing for other teams that can be playing for you !!!

    get him out of town and get a young superstar to play with Galchenyuk and keep the build going
    MOVE FORWARD!!!!

    • Are you upset??? Lol

  2. Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
    Little or no progress made in PK Subban contract negotiations. Habs firm on 2 year deal, roughly $5 mil total. Offer sheet? Trade? Options.

    If this is true, I’m ok with a 2 year deal.. but at roughly 2.5 a year, I think that’s too low. 3.5-4 would be a nice number. Either way, again if true, I guess we’ll see PK’s true desire to remain in Montreal.

    • Guess it partly depends on PK whether its about him or the team. In the salary cap world, most of the top tier teams have their good players re-signing for lower than market value so there is more cap space to build depth on the team. I don’t blame Bergevin for wanting to sign him to an affordable contract so he can afford other players. Getting Gomez off the cap books was a great start.

  3. If I was Bergevin …Id be on the phone with Garth Snow at the break of dawn today discussing a Subban for Neiderrietter trade …Subban is best friends with Tavares send him to the Islanders and get two players back Ninno and a defenesman and get on with it all ready!

    Webber wants to be traded as well do a nice pkg deal

    how about Subban and Webber for Niederrietter ( wants a trade) Visnovsky ( doesnt want to play ) and Thomas Hickey was for free on waivers !!

  4. I got a few:
    Montreal gets: Oullet, Filppula
    Detroit gets: Subban, 2nd
    or,
    LA gets: Subban and change (5th)
    Montreal gets: Voynov, 2nd or 3rd
    or,
    NYI gets: Subban and a 2nd
    Montreal gets: Strome and Streit
    or,
    TOR gets: fantasy trade
    Montreal gets: garbage
    or,
    Colorado gets: Subban, Bourque, 2nd
    Montreal gets: Stastny and change (5th)
    or,
    Dallas gets: Subban
    Montreal gets: Eakin, Oleksiak

    • As last years standing will tell you,any “garbage” you get from Toronto will still be better than what you have.

      • and the last thing the Leafs need is a guy with an inflated ego like Subban.

    • “TOR gets: fantasy trade
      Montreal gets: garbage”

      Best comment ever.

    • Toronto also gets the 2 pts. ;)

      • TOR: Subban
        MTL: Two 1st and a 2nd.

    • The Toronto trade was a joke, I’m just teasing. I doubt the Leafs and the Canadiens would actually make a trade.

      BTW I’m a Devils fan, not a Habs fan.

  5. Honestly Montreal, instead of being in a similar situation in 2 years, give him a 5 year deal already.

  6. @ Habs_ FTW

    You know that Subban is going to walk to the highest bidder after his two year deal to a team that will then pay him $6 mill or more on the open market …in the mean time you could have traded him for better assets that will be part of the team for a longer time …in the mean time he is not going to win you the cup ..so trade him and get multiple players back that will be with the organization longer term!!

    • He would still be a “restricted” free agent after a two year deal.

  7. Regarding the Le Presse article, here’s what I don’t get.

    Subban is only worth an average salary, yet if he was to be traded, he would fetch the equivalent of Dougie Hamilton, Tyler Seguin, and a 1st.

    And people think Leaf fans/press are delusional.

    • You are right on brother

    • Ha ha spot on my friend

    • Actually, most Mtl. media and fans are worried that Subban cannot possibly get a fair return in trade, let alone names like you mentioned. That is the whole problem with this situation of him being unsigned and the contract gulf between player and team.

      But perhaps you are having trouble with Google translate too ….

  8. The guy has not even reached 40 points. Two years at $3M per would be my max offer.

    I wonder if the Panthers may also want in with Kulikov having held out and in two years could be another contract issue.

  9. @ Dabroons

    Yep I agree!!!

    Thats why I am hoping for a Kessel trade as he would have to reap a quality trade coming back that can help the Leafs longer term before he is a UFA next year!! If Subban can get that so they say ..then a Kessel deal would be in the Leafs best interest right now for a power forward center man and prospect …….AT LEAST !!!
    Time to capitalize an that !!

    • Give the trade Kessel scenarios a rest, it just isnt going to happen.

      • Drew let him rant,it gives great humour to the day and something to tell your friends.
        Calling Stastny a power forward and saying Kessel will only score 15 under Carlyle is his opinion and he is entitled to it but for those of us that disagree it is good for a room full of laughs at a get together.
        If it bugs you just scroll past his posts and no harm done but he is not being a troll and just stating opinions he believes in.
        We may never agree with him but there are those that will and everyone is entitled to their own opinion and that is why we debate.

    • Nobody wants Kessel……unless Burke gets a new GM job and can screw that one up again.

      • what team in their right mind would want a 30-goal consistant scorer?IF Kessel were on the market(and he’s not),29 other teams would love to have him

        • Back checking getting the troll on, eh?

  10. Lyle,

    Some of the other players you used as comparisons for Subban are the reason we had the lockout. Doughty getting $7M per season is way too much for a guy coming off his first contract. But in that case, I believe Lombardi was committed to a long-term contract.

    Subban has only had two years of NHL experience, and his numbers are nice, but not thrilling. He deserves a 2 year deal at somewhere around $3.5M to $4.5M per season. If he continues to improve, then he deserves the big contract. But he needs to put up bigger numbers if he wants Doughty level money.

    Montreal may be trying to right the ship that went off course during the last CBA.

    • You are correct. The better comparisons would be with guys like Victor Hedman, Jack Johnson or John Carlson – somewhere between 4 and 4.5 M for about 4 years. Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Tyler Myers are skewed numbers based on very specific circumstances.

  11. Boston should send an offer sheet.
    Could put savard on ltir and dump Thomas somewhere.
    If Montreal matches it will hurt their cap so that will help Boston also.
    If they don’t we could use him this year and dump some salary next year.
    Let Horton and ference go to ufa.
    Reunite with his brother that’s probably why Boston picked took him anyway.

  12. This is a very bad year to be a GM.
    Hold outs,players wanting to be traded,bad starts,injuries,new CBA and a short season.
    the right moves you can be a hero and the wrong move you are unemployed.
    Tough time to have to play the waiting game or be the first to jump.
    But when the first domino falls it could trigger a pile more.

  13. What we are seeing here is more work from owners to take their revenge out against the players following the lockout. This will never end, I urge you to ask this question: what team DOES’T want Subban on their team? Or benn? Or o Reilly? How is it that none of these guys have even got an offer sheet yet? Sure the team would match it but then what is the harm in offering the sheet? The answer is that it would skip the bridge contract and good players everywhere would be being paid much more if teams just went around using the offer sheet. I tend to believe that there is some kind of “gentleman’s agreement” to not inflate wages by using offer sheets. In legal terms this gentleman’s agreement would be equivalent to corporate collusion: ] It can involve “wage fixing, kickbacks, or misrepresenting the independence of the relationship between the colluding parties”.(from wiki page on collusion) now does that sound like something that is going on here?

    • I wouldnt want Subban on my team.The guy hasnt hit 40 pts,but is holding out for Doughty-type money.On top of that,when his team needs him in a shortened season,where every game is important,he’s at home thinking of himself.Furthermore,I read all the time that he isn’t well liked in the dressing room.

  14. If I were subban I would give Montreal one more week if they don’t present an offer that he was looking for I’d start talking offer sheets and sign one. Teams are always saying “oh we’d match any offer presented” lets see if that is true. If they don’t you got your money and your on a team that respects you a little more.

  15. @ Top right corner.

    NICE!!! Buddy! Your a legend!!

    Your a brilliant mind!!

    Paul Stastny Drafted 2005 Center position
    GP G A PTS
    430 126 249 375

    Phil Kessel Drafted 2006
    Gp G A PTS
    460 165 164 329

  16. Subban needs to be careful how he and Donnie ( all about Me ) tread, before he becomes another Patrice Brisebois and gets the entire city against him. Subban might be very talented, but the Montreal public can be very un-forgiving….ask Brisebois. A trade may be the only way for this to end, and you only get so much back for potential. A super-star he is not.

  17. @ Top right corner

    Peter Chiarelli must have been stupid to let a perennial 30 goal scorer go on a deep Boston team and then go on to win a Stanley cup with his replacement Seguin who hasnt cracked 30 goals yet …..so how is Kessel going to be that important to a lesser Leaf team who has half the talent of the Bruins with Kessel in the line up ???
    Just curious as to how you figure Kessel is going to be that important to a Leaf team going forward scoring 30 goals a year not making the playoffs and a guy who is going to have to resign for $6 – $ 7 million going to be that instrumental ??? when you can get multiple players for him that may be better moving forward !

    I like Kessel he just wont fit in the system and be a benefactor and gamebreaker in the Carlyle system ..I hope he proves me wrong!!

    • DK why people are so down on Kessel, who with Savard, were a dynamite combo with the Broons and they took a step back in 2010, the year after trading him. Had they not taken Carolina lightly, they might have made the finals in 2009, at least the conference finals.

      The Broons were also very lucky on that trade, as they thought they had a trade on draft day with Kaberle and the Leafs’ first coming back (they would have drafted Kassian). Burke backed out and the Broons offered to sweeten the pot with their own first and Burke turned them down.

      Let’s see, would you rather have Kaberle and Kassian or Seguin, Hamilton, and Knight?

      • That is correct,Burke overplayed his hand and it cost him and worked out very nicely for the Bruins.
        We have to hope what we did end up getting for kabs ends up being nhl material.

        • well we got a 2nd round pick in that deal that turned out to be liles who is better than kaberle.

    • backcheck,

      the bruins got lucky as the leafs did way worse than expected and got seguin,nothing can be done about that.
      as for bruins winning the cup they were deep and seguin did very little,almost any other player they had up could have done what he did.
      he will be a very good player for years but if bruins had enough cash at the time they would have signed kessel.

      kessel is young and fits into this young team going forward and even if he gets 6 mil it is still the same as what stastny gets.
      stastny is not a power forward and has declined since signing his big bucks even surrounded by good young guys.
      if kessel gets a good centre he will get 40-50 and got 35 and 80 pts without one,someone stastny is not even closed to doing.

      your multiple players is not the same as when you said even up kessel for stastny.
      i cannot judge that scenario unless i see what the deal would look like but saying a couple of prospects and a pick means nothing until you see names.
      snipers do not grow on trees and if he wants to be here i am happy to have him over maybe players.

      there are lots of free agents,if not signed,next year that the leafs can chase and if signed fill the hole for just cash and will make kessel even better.
      not much point in trading the sniper and adding prospects and then signing top free agents to have nobody to play with.
      what do you think is more enticing to say getzlaf,signing and playing with kessel on wing or some unknown prospect?

      the leafs now have a lot of young guys playing already and some in the minors and juniors that look good and up over the next couple of years.
      they do not need more,they need them to get experience and add some vet presence not subtract it.

      • Actually a perfect centre fo Kessel would be Kessler from Vancouver. A skilled hard nosed, go to the next mind of player who has worked hard at perfecting the kind of game that has earned him a good contract. I see him as a perfect fit, even though I don’t believe the Leafs have any way of getting him from the Canucks, and he could be the kind of guy Kessel needs to get him to 50 goals.
        I don’t see any reason why Toronto would not work hard at resigning Kessel. They have a lot invested in him and know that even with average line mates he can get them 25 to 30 goals per year. It is hard to let that kind of scoring go for an unknown quantity that a trade would bring them.
        It would be much better to sign Kessel and then either wait until Phaneuf walks away as an UFA or if at all possible get someone to take on his excessive contract. I have stated here that I am not a fan of Kessel’s game but I believe I know talent when I see it and not many players are in his league as far as a pure goal scorer goes. Toronto needs to do what it takes to sign him and make whatever moves it needs to, to find him the right centre.

    • I will not disagree that the trade for kessel didn’t work out for the leafs. Burke over estimated what he had or had a move after this trade and it fell through. But would not tade kessel unless he doesn’t want to re-sign. He is a scorer plan and simple. Not a big power forward, but a scorer, and every team needs one. Imagine if the leafs had kessel when sundin was still here. Mats never had a winger to play with that was close to kessels skill level. If they try to trade kessel what are they going to get? Look what Nash got and I would say he is just as good if not better then kessel. Yes every team would want a kessel but its not a good time to move a player and expecting a big return when teams are having to she’d salary for the cap decrease.

      • Correct, my friend. Too many people worry about what Kessel is NOT, when they should be happy with what he is. How many players can score like he can? He will never be a Neely-type player, just accept him for what he is. And get him a left-shooting centre who can get him the puck with stretch passes and feeds from the half wall.

  18. What about Subban and Weber for Yakupov and Pääjärvi?

    • Seriously, you didn’t just suggest that. Edmonton could use another good defensive defenseman and already have Schultz to fill the roll Subban would want to be. Yakupov is probably going to be an offensive juggernaut so why would the oilers trade him. Paajaarvi may be a third line player but Weber has been nothing more than a spare part so far. You habs fans really do over estimate the value of Subban.

  19. With talk of Montreal hearing from Philadelphia about the availability of Subban I believe that Philly has a lot of decisions to make over and above just Subban. They must make a decision about who to use to replace Scott Hartnell and Andrej Meszaros this year but also who to trade, resign or let walk away next year.
    While replacing someone with the sandpaper like play of Hartnell will not be easy neither will finding someone to step up and fill Meszaros’s skates as well and Philly may have to look at the trade route.
    Both this as well as next year they have mega decisions to make that could affect how they look at replacing their injured pieces. Soon or prior to the 2013/14 season they must make decisions regarding their goaltending, as well as Ruslan Fedotenko who becomes an UFA, which could free up $1,750 million if they don’t bring him back. Also, does Jody Shelly’s play and enforcer role earn him another contract like the $1,100 million he is making this year as he also becomes an UFA. What about the new Flyer Mike Knuble and his $750,000? This doesn’t take into account the 3 upcoming RFA’s by the name of Sestito, Wellwood and Rinaldo. Tha’s just the forwards and now comes defense. Kimmo Timonen is earning $6,333,333 this year but is an UFA next year. What do you do about him? Matt Walker and his $1,700 million, Kurtis Foster and his $950,000 and Andreas Lilja with his $737,000 are set to become UFA’s as well. What about the goaltending situation with the jury still out on Ilya Bryzgalov and his monster long term $5,666,667 cap hit, what does Holmgren do about backup Michael Leighton who at just $900,000 is set to become an UFA as well. All of this and the long time injured Chris Pronger too.
    I mention all of this as the discussion of maybe Montreal trading Subban to Philadelphia or the possibility of Holmgren sending an offer sheet P.K’s way rages on.
    Holmgren and the Philadelphia brain trust have some HUGE decisions to make while this years 48 game season continues and for seasons to come.
    I ask you other armchair GM’s…if you were Philly’s GM, what would you do, not only about P.K. Subban but about the upcoming decisions that must be made?

  20. Why would it take 3or 4players plus a first rd pic subban is not that good I could see if he won a Norris or some other award but that’s no the case he is a cheap dirty player who is good but not great a first n a prospect maybe but not what’s suggested

  21. Good God, if Subban is worth anything like either (a) he’s seeking in his contract or (b) Montreal (lor at least the media that covers the team) thinks it can get in a trade for him, what is Kris Letang going to be worth when the Pens have to fool with his extension this summer?!?!? Letang has hit the 50 point plateau…and outscored Subban last year, but in 30 fewer games played. This will be an interesting test case…will the owners have any degree of self discipline uner the new CBA, or will they lose their collective minds and yet again look for ways to sign players to contracts that far exceed their value?

    • I think there will always be GM’s/owners who will overpay for players and sign them to contracts far outweighing there current body of work in hopes that they turn into the second coming of either The Great One or Paul Coffey. While a gamble on the teams part, it does set a precidence and in turn starts a domino type scenario throughout the whole league where every agent tells their player that they can get more money by holding out or demanding a trade.
      Just like during the previous CBA when spending got out of control, this CBA will have loop holes that will allow owners to try to outspend their rivals if they believe that will get them the advantage they are after.
      Basically same shit…different day.

    • Put Subban on the same team with Malkin and Neal compared with guys who get 30 less points and you’ll find Subban’s numbers inflate. Not quite to Letang’s numbers, but using last year’s statistics, I gave both an offense rating:
      Subban (23 years old): 72 (46th)
      Letang (25 years old): 84 (5th)

      When Subban hits 25, I imagine he won’t be at Letang’s 84 rating, but then Letang didn’t play a full season last year so his numbers are skewed. Are they comparable at this point? Yes. But Letang will deserve about 5-7M/y based on his numbers. Subban would deserve, if compared to Letang, 3.5M/Y and nobody thinks he should make any more than 4.5.

      They’re a good comparison to me… Montreal would probably pay him 3-3.5M/y for 2 years but he’s being a stickler about it.

      • Numbers I think are only part of the story. Letang is viewed as a legitimate Norris candidate in some circles. Not sure I personally agree, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say “Norris” and “Subban” in the same sentence, unless that sentence is “no chance Subban wins the Norris this season.” In addition…and this is as nicely as I can phrase this…Letang isn’t a sideshow.

  22. “The Subban camp saw the new contracts other comparable young stars (Eberle, Seguin, Doughty, Eriksson, Hall, E.Kane) received since the summer of 2011, so obviously they want a lucrative, long-term deal, probably five-six years for around $30-$35 million. ”
    None of those players are comparable to Subban, they are all better players that are in an upper echelon. All of those players are much more talented, productive, proven and with the exception of E.Kane, more mature and better teammates as well. P.K does not deserve anything more than a bridge contract because there are more questions than answers about him and his game. For every positive aspect that he brings to an organization statistically and in terms of personality with his enthusiasm, he brings something that limits he and his team’s ability to win. He draws tons of penalty, he is physical and generates a lot of hits, but he take more penalties than 95% of all defensemen in the league. He gets a lot of shots on net, but just as many miss the net and he fails to score on many of his chances that he does get through. He creates a lot of opportunities, but due to his limited vision and hockey smarts, he wastes just as many. He brings a lot of energy but he also annoys the living sh*t out of a lot of players in the locker room. So until he proves that he his a true professional, a grown man and a team player, he doesn’t deserve a long-term lucrative contract. He needs to erase his question marks permanently before he gets the big fish.

  23. You should hear the comments of the players in Montreal when asked about Subban. His teamates don’t like him at all. Gorges, Plekanec, Cole, Gionta. Guys that are leaders just say it’s more quiet, more normal since he is not around. they don’t show any interest in seeing him back and they dont hide it.

    Subban is out of Montreal even if Markov gets injured. Even if Diaz, Gorges and Emelin are injured.

    I’m pretty sure Bergevin is sending him as far as he can.

  24. subban is not worth 5 mill a season yet.maybe in 2 yrs so why not take two years at 3 mill than get 5 to 6 mill.a little greedy on subbans part.nice to see a gm stick to his guns and not cave in.